It’s Powell’s last Jackson Hole address before his term ends next year. He’ll want to shape his legacy as the man who tamed inflation without crushing the economy.
The most probable path is Powell hinting at a rate cut in September or before year-end.
My estimate?
70% chance he signals cuts, 25% chance he stays cautious, and only 5% chance he shocks markets with a hawkish tone.
Phenomenology and Poetry 